Citation

Kapski D, Leonovich I, Ratkeviciute K. Balt. J. Road Bridge Eng. 2007; 2(3): 133-140.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2007, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Publisher Technika)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This paper describes an attempt to apply catastrophe theory for the process of road transport situation development into a conflict situation, which, in the result turns to the accident, through the interpretation of a potential danger of the conflict. For this purpose the simplest methods (elementary catastrophes) were used, allowing to estimate the values of the basic parameters of road traffic. The suggested method made it possible to consider the interaction of conflict points in joint location, what has considerably increased the adequacy of forecasting.