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Citation
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Huber V, Breitner-Busch S, He C, Matthies-Wiesler F, Peters A, Schneider A. Dtsch. Arztebl. Int. 2024; ePub(ePub): ePub. |
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Abstract
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BACKGROUND: Estimating the excess mortality attributable to heat is a central element of the documentation of the consequences of climate change for human health. Until now, estimates of heat-related deaths in Germany by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) have been based on weekly mortality records.
METHODS: Our study is the first to use higher resolution data-i.e. daily all-cause mortality linked to daily mean temperatures-from each of the German federal states to assess the heat-related mortality from 2000 to 2023 in Germany, employing quasi-Poisson models and multivariate meta-regression analyses. We focus our analysis on the extreme summer of 2022.
RESULTS: Our analysis yielded an estimate of 9100 (95% CI: [7300; 10 700]) heat-related deaths in Germany for the summer of 2022, whereas previous studies of the RKI estimated the number of heat-related deaths at 4500 [2100; 7000]. When we set a higher temperature threshold in the definition of the heat risk, we arrived at a figure of 6900 [5500; 8100] heat-related deaths in 2022. In other summers that-similarly to 2022-were characterized by large fluctuations in daily mean temperatures, we also robustly estimated higher numbers of heat-related deaths than the RKI did. The exclusion of reported deaths due to COVID-19 had only a minor effect on our estimates.
CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that previous studies based on weekly mortality data have underestimated the full extent of heat-related mortality in Germany, particularly in the extreme summer of 2022. The monitoring of heat-related mortality should be systematic and as comprehensive as possible if it is to enable the development of effective heat-health action plans.
Language: en |