Citation

Drake B, Jonson-Reid M, Ocampo MG, Morrison M, Dvalishvili DD. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 2020; 692(1): 162-181.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/0002716220978200

PMID

36969716

PMCID

PMC10038317

Abstract

Predictive risk modeling (PRM) is a new approach to data analysis that can be used to help identify risks of abuse and maltreatment among children. Several child welfare agencies have considered, piloted, or implemented PRM for this purpose. We discuss and analyze the application of PRM to child protection programs, elaborating on the various misgivings that arise from the application of predictive modeling to human behavior, and we present a framework to guide the application of PRM in child welfare systems. Our framework considers three core questions: (1) Is PRM more accurate than current practice? (2) Is PRM ethically equivalent or superior to current practice? and (3) Are necessary evaluative and implementation procedures established prior to, during, and following introduction of the PRM?

Language: en

Keywords

risk assessment; child protective services; child welfare policy; predictive risk modeling