Citation

Islam M, Mannering F. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2021; 153: e106039.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.aap.2021.106039

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The effect of inappropriate speed adjustment to adverse conditions on crash-injury severities, and how this effect might vary across male and female drivers, and over time, is not well understood. To study this, single-vehicle crashes occurring in rainy weather, where speed too fast for conditions is a driver action identified as a contributing factor to the crash, were considered. The differences between the resulting crash-injury severities of male and female drivers (and how these differences change over time) is then studied utilizing three years of Florida crash data and estimating random parameters multinomial logit models of driver injury severity while considering potential heterogeneity in the means and variances of parameter estimates. Model estimation results show that there were significant differences in the driver-injury severities of male and female drivers, and that the effect of factors that determine injury severities varied significantly over time (statistically significant temporal instability). This suggests that male and female drivers generally perceive and react to rainy weather conditions in fundamentally different ways, and that their responses, as reflected by the effect that explanatory variables have on injury severity probabilities, change over time. However, there were two explanatory variables that had relatively stable effects on injury-severity probabilities over time and across genders: an indicator variable for crashes involving non-collision factors (including overturn/rollover crashes) and an indicator variable for restraint usage. Policies that target these two variables could produce long-term reductions in crash-injury severities under adverse conditions.

Language: en

Keywords

Injury severity; Driving too fast for conditions; Male and female drivers; Mixed logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances; Rainy weather; Temporal stability