Citation

Gonçalves LC, Gerth J, Rossegger A, Noll T, Endrass J. Sex. Abuse 2019; ePub(ePub): 1079063218821117.

Affiliation

Department of Psychology, University of Konstanz, Germany.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/1079063218821117

PMID

30623752

Abstract

This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC =.81) and calibration (Brier =.078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment.

Language: en

Keywords

Static-99; Static-99R; predictive validity; recidivism; sex offenders