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Abstract
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OBJECTIVE
To investigate the predictive validity of tools commonly used to assess the risk of violence, sexual, and criminal behaviour.
METHODS
Systematic review and tabular meta-analysis of replication studies following PRISMA guidelines. Risk assessments were conducted on 73 samples comprising 24 847 participants from 13 countries. We investigated potential sources of heterogeneity using meta-regression and subgroup analyses.
RESULTS
When used to predict violent offending, risk assessment tools produced low to moderate positive predictive values and higher negative predictive values, a corresponding median number needed to detain of 2 (2-4), and number safely discharged of 10 (4-18). Instruments designed to predict violent offending performed better than those aimed at predicting sexual or general crime.
CONCLUSIONS
Although risk assessment tools are widely used in clinical and criminal justice settings, their predictive accuracy varies depending on how they are used. Further research is needed to examine their contribution to treatment and management. |