Citation

Blumstein A, Cork D. Law Contemp. Probl. 1996; 59(1): 5-24.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1996, Duke University, School of Law)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In the United States, opinion polls over the last several years have consistently placed violence near the top of the public's list of concerns. This seems to happen regardless of whether homicide rates are climbing or falling. In this paper, we examine the time trends in homicide rates in the United States, and find that the fears are not totally inappropriate, even in the recent years when homicide rates have been falling. We find that, while there has been a significant decline in homicides committed by older offenders, homicides committed by younger offenders grew dramatically beginning in 1985. An important factor in that growth has been a significant increase in the availability of guns to young people. By examining time trends in age-specific arrest rates for homicide (gun homicide compared to non-gun homicide) and similar trends in drug-related arrest rates (juveniles compared to adults), the role of gun availability, especially as it has risen through the recruitment of young people into drug markets, is identified as a probable cause of these homicide trends. Further examination of mortality rates-due to gun homicides compared to non- gun homicides as well as gun suicides compared to non-gun suicides-for various age and race groups also implicates gun availability as a key contributing factor to the growth in youth homicide.