Citation

Fricke W, Malchau G. Z. Wirtschgeogr. 1994; 38(3): 163-178.

Vernacular Title

Die Volkszahlung in Nigeria 1991 -- Geographische Aspekte eines politischen

Copyright

(Copyright © 1994, Pick-Verlag)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

12290239

Abstract

The population of Nigeria has been estimated at more than 100 million by various sources. The UN in 1987 estimated it at 87 million, the World Bank at 106.2 million, and the Nigerian National Population Commission at 112.3 million. However, the 1991 census, which was carefully conducted, came up with only 87.5 million, whereas according to the World Bank the number should have exceeded 120 million. The discrepancy of 30 million provoked strong reaction among politicians in the country. 5-year average growth rates between 1970 and 1990 indicated an increase from 26.6% to 37.9%; therefore, the population during the 28-year period from 1963 and 1991 must have approximated 100 million. The figure of 112.3 million would require a growth rate of 34.9%, which was plausible from the early 1970s. The results of the 1991 census have pointed to an enigmatic curiosity: was it an accident that the North has registered the highest annual growth rates dating back to 1963, or even 1952? The political infighting and series of coups d'etat by generals may also be correlated to this numerical distortion, since all these generals were Northerners. An accurate analysis was not possible because of the paucity of data. The census of 1991 has not been fully disclosed until the present time August 1994, strengthening the case of the skeptics, although the full publication of the figures has to do with the political situation in Nigeria. The democratization process was halted after June 1992, especially after the invalidation of the results of the presidential election and the seizing of power by General Abacha. In the event that a democratic government arises, perhaps the figures of the 1991 census will be published, which could also explain the lower growth rate of the economic centers in the Southwest and the Southeast. Nigeria sorely needs more reliable census data for planning because of a one-sided export structure (95% of foreign currency is earned from oil), neglected agriculture, and migration to the cities.

Language: de