Citation

Manton KG, Stallard E, Woodbury MA. Math. Model. 1986; 7(5-8): 1155-1171.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1986, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/0270-0255(86)90155-7

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

A general model of the effects of physiological aging changes and systematic selection due to death or to morbid changes in a human population is presented. Parameter estimation is conducted on large longitudinal data bases. Assuming the availability of such estimates, the model is developed in a form suitable for implementation on a microcomputer. Consideration is given to simulating the effects of chronic disease on a human population using estimated parameter values and using alternative values selected to reflect various assumptions about possible interventions. An example is developed using data from the Framingham Study of cardiovascular disease.