Citation

Fos PJ, McLin CL. Med. Decis. Making 1990; 10(3): 195-200.

Affiliation

Tulane University Medical Center, School of Public Health, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1990, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

2370826

Abstract

Accidental injury resulting from falling is the leading cause of death in the elderly population. In fact, 11% of the nation's annual injury deaths occur in this age group. A significant number of accidental deaths occur in resident institutions. A short-term risk index was constructed and validated for the purpose of predicting the risk of a fall in an elderly institutionalized population. The risk index was developed from expert insights, using Bayesian inference. A group of experts identified major risk factors that influence the chance of a fall and provided estimates of the impacts of the identified risk factors. Identification of risk factors, elicitation of experts' insights, construction of the subjective risk index, and validation of the index are discussed.

Language: en