Citation

Gottschalk L. Am. J. Sociol. 1944; 50(1): 1-8.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1944, University of Chicago Press)

DOI

10.1086/219493

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Historical cause is here defined as those antecedents of a known result that can be selected as being logically concurrent with that result and, in combination, sufficient and necessary to bring it about. An attempt is the made to apply that definition to the analysis of the causes of revolution, which, it is argued, are: (1) demand for change, which is derived from (a) provocations and (b) solidified public opinion; (2) hopefulness of success, which comes from (a) programs of reform and (b) leadership; and (3) the weakness of the conservative groups, which may be caused by disputes among themselves, disaffection in the army, international complications, or domestic crises.