CONTACT US: Contact info
|
Citation |
Wu Y, Pelot RP, Hilliard C. Risk Anal. 2009; 29(7): 985-999. |
|
Copyright |
(Copyright © 2009, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons) |
|
DOI |
|
PMID |
19302275 |
|
Abstract |
There is a long history of studying the relationship between weather and maritime activities. This article analyzes the link between relative incident rate (RIR) and general weather factors within certain gridded areas and time periods. The study area, which encompasses a broad extent of Atlantic Canadian waters, includes fishing incidents recorded by the Canadian Coast Guard from 1997 to 1999. Methodologies used for traffic track generation in a geographical information system and aggregation of all relevant weather data needed for the statistical analyses are presented. Ultimately, a regression tree was built to illustrate the relationship between incident rate and the following six weather factors: wave height; sea surface temperature; air temperature; ice concentration; fog presence; and precipitation. Results from the regression tree reveal that the RIR defined as (incident number per area-day)/(traffic amount per area-day) across grid cells with incidents, increases as the weather conditions deteriorate in a general way, and the concentration of ice has the biggest influence on the magnitude of incident rates for a given level of traffic exposure. The results from this analysis may assist administrators of maritime traffic, especially those associated with fishing activities, through a better understanding of the influence on RIR of certain weather conditions within given areas in specific time periods. Language: en |