Citation

Plassmann F, Lott JR. SSRN eLibrary 2002; 2002(online): ID 320107.

Affiliation

SUNY at Binghamton, Department of Economics; University of Maryland Foundation, University of Maryland

Copyright

(Copyright © 2002, Social Science Electronic Publishing)

DOI

10.2139/ssrn.320107

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The paper describes an analysis of the relationship between changes in the number of guns and changes in the number of crimes. Both variables are non-negative integers with large mass points at zero, and both variables are likely to affect each other. We account for these characteristics by analyzing our data with a multivariate Poisson-lognormal model that we estimate with the Gibbs sampler. Because county-level data on gun ownership are not available, we use data on subscriptions to the gun magazine Handguns Magazine as a proxy. We do not find any evidence of a pattern that would suggest that either more gun magazine sales lead to more crimes or that more crimes lead to more gun magazine sales.