Citation

Wang C, Easa S, Chen F, Cheng J. Transp. Res. Rec. 2024; 2678(7): 157-177.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2024, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/03611981231203219

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Rear-end crashes have become an urgent problem in China, resulting in severe casualties and massive property damage. This study aims, first, to discover the determinants affecting injury severity in expressway rear-end crashes and to examine the corresponding changes over time and space, and, second, to identify the sources of unobserved heterogeneity shifts, which could have substantial implications for efficient and effective crash prevention. Using three-year crash data (2017 -2019) from two expressways with speed limits of 120 km/h and 100 km/h (G2 and G25) in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces in China, four random parameter logit model (RP-LM) approaches were used in this study to analyze the contributing factors: fixed parameter LM, RP-LM, RP-LM with heterogeneity in means, and RP-LM with heterogeneity in means and variances. With three injury severity consequences (severe injury, minor injury, and no injury), the characteristics of the driver, vehicle, roadway, environment, and others were proposed as possible determinants. The temporal and spatial stability were then explored using transferability tests. The marginal effects were computed to explore further potential heterogeneity and spatiotemporal variations. The estimated results indicate the superiority of the proposed model over its base counterparts, with very good