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Abstract
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ISEE 2024: 36th Annual Conference of the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology
BACKGROUND AND AIM[|]The excess mortality attributable to tropical cyclones (TCs) constitutes a severe public health concern. In countries with vulnerable infrastructure, TCs contribute to deaths through incidents such as drowning, fallen trees and landslides. Conversely, in many high-income countries (HICs) such as Japan, where infrastructure is well-developed, the major mechanisms of causing TC-related deaths may be different. For instance, some effect-modifiers including the aging population structure and the accessibility to medical facilities may play an important role in the excess mortality by TCs in HICs. Therefore, we aim to better understand the role of social vulnerability on TC-triggered all-cause deaths in regions with well-developed infrastructure.[¤]METHOD[|]We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct the all-cause death generating process and estimate the effect of social factors on deaths related to a cyclone event, by using data on daily death counts, aging proportion, accessibility to medicine, average income, and meteorological information including TC exposure at the prefecture-level in Japan during 2010-2020.[¤]RESULTS[|]There were 14,302,819 cases of all-cause deaths during the 11 years in Japan. We identified 46 TC events which made landfall on the mainland. The population aged 65 years and above was identified as a vulnerable demographic subgroup. Compared to regions lacking adequate medical access in rural areas, we observed less excess death in urbanized regions.[¤]CONCLUSIONS[|]The findings suggested that, in countries with well-established infrastructure like Japan, rural areas with limited access to healthcare facilities and a high proportion of elderly residents are more susceptible to excess death risks by TCs. Considering infrastructure resilience, demographic vulnerabilities, and healthcare access is imperative when devising public health strategies to mitigate excess mortality caused by TCs in advanced economies.[¤] |