Citation

Pervez A, Jamal A, Haider Khan S. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2024; 204: e107651.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2024, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.aap.2024.107651

PMID

38833987

Abstract

Traffic crashes involving three-wheeler motorized rickshaw (3-WMR) are alarming public health and socioeconomic concerns in developing countries. While most of the earlier studies have dealt with safety analysis of four- and two-wheelers, there is a noticeable gap in understanding the safety dynamics, especially the risk factors affecting the crashes involving 3-WMR. The present study aims to address this gap by exploring potential risk factors influencing 3-WMR crashes, utilizing a correlated random parameters multinomial logit model with heterogeneity in means (CRPMNLMHM). This modeling framework advances the classic random parameters model by capturing associations among random parameters, providing a more comprehensive understanding of crash risks associated with 3-WMR. The empirical analysis draws on three years of traffic crash records (2017-2019) maintained by RESCUE 1122 in Rawalpindi city, Pakistan. A comparative assessment between the modeling frameworks demonstrated that CRPMNLMHM outperformed its counterparts. Model assessment for heterogeneity in the means identifies two significant variables, i.e., young age and nighttime, which yield statistically significant random parameters. In addition, the model's results suggest that fatal and severe injury outcomes in 3-WMR crashes are affected by several attributes related to temporal characteristics (weekend, nighttime, and off-peak indicators), driver profiles (young, older aged, and speeding), posted speed limits (>70 kmph), weather conditions (raining), and crash characteristics (collision with pedestrians, trucks, or 3-WMR overturning). The present study's findings offer invaluable insights, emphasizing the significance of considering for unobserved heterogeneity in variables contributing to the injury severity of 3-WMR crashes. Moreover, in light of the findings, a set of policy implications are suggested, which will guide safety practitioners to develop more effective countermeasures to address safety issues associated with 3-WMRs.

Language: en

Keywords

Developing country; Correlated random parameters model; Injury severity risk factors; Three-wheeler motorized rickshaws; Unobserved heterogeneity