Citation

Hou H, Pei YF, Yu B, Gao XY, Wang W. Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention 2022; 26(1): 34-39.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022)

DOI

10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.01.006

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

OBJECTIVE To analyze the trend of suicide mortality among rural population aged 10-84 years from 2004 to 2019, in order to provide scientific basis for the suicide prevention.

METHODS Data of suicide death among rural population aged 10-84 years were collected from China Health Statistics Yearbook from 2005 to 2020. The parameters of age, period and cohort effect were estimated by using age-period-cohort (APC) model and itrinsic estimator.

RESULTS The suicide rate of rural residents in China was gradually declined. APC model analysis results showed that the age effect of suicide death increased with age, especially in adolescents. The risk of suicide death was higher for females than males in all age except in middle age. The period effect showed that the risk of suicide death decreased slowly with period advances, and the decrease speed of the suicide death was significantly higher for female than for male. Cohort effect of suicide death decreased before 1979, followed by steady between 1980 and 1994, and increased sharply after 1995.

CONCLUSIONS The changes of the risk of suicide death may be closely related to the major historical events. APC model can describe the trend of suicide mortality well. © 2022, Publication Centre of Anhui Medical University. All rights reserved.

Language: zh

Keywords

adolescent; adult; human; age; suicide; Suicide; Mortality; child; female; male; China; mortality; Rural; rural population; school child; middle aged; cohort analysis; disease simulation; Article; velocity; trend study; Age-period-cohort model; mortality rate; cohort effect