Citation

Lankov A. Survival 2021; 63(6): 107-118.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Publisher Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/00396338.2021.2006447

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The denuclearisation of North Korea is unlikely. Neither pressure nor rewards will persuade North Korean decision-makers to surrender their nuclear weapons because they have good reasons to see denuclearisation as tantamount to collective suicide. Therefore, the only realistic goal of the United States and the international community is arms control. There are ways to reward North Korean leaders for their willingness to restrict their nuclear and missile programmes. These include partial removal of sanctions, economic assistance and subsidised investment. However, any deal will be costly, since North Korea will exact maximum compensation for its willingness to accept an arms-control regime. Reaching an agreement also will be time consuming. A grand bargain is unattainable, and the parties will have to take small, incremental steps. © 2021 The International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Language: en

Keywords

South Korea; North Korea; nuclear weapons; arms control; denuclearisation; Kim Jong-un; Korean Peninsula; Pyongyang; sanctions; special economic zones; unification