Citation

Kuwata Y, Takada S. Nat. Hazards 2004; 33(1): 23-46.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2004, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

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PMID

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Abstract

To save lives immediately after a catastrophic earthquake occurs, it is essential for an urban transportation system to retain its functional performance in order to carry injured people to hospitals. Recent seismic assessment studies have mostly been based on cost-benefit analyses, carried out in monetary terms that are reasonable for long-term considerations. However, many problems of seismic risk management still remain. For example, attributing a monetary value to a human life is considered impossible. Also, requirements for functioning of a transportation system are different in the period immediately after an earthquake. This paper concentrates on how to assess the importance of an urban transportation system as it relates to saving human life, and what system enhancements should be made to improve performance. This paper proposes a risk assessment method for the functional reliability of a transportation system immediately after an earthquake. In that period, system malfunction adversely affects the saving of lives as a result of time delays when moving injured people to medical facilities. A system dynamics simulation of transporting injured people is incorporated in the method, which uses two assessment approaches to evaluate the differences of cumulative injured people who receive medical care. In deciding on the destination of medical facility in the simulation, two ways of deciding are addressed; one uses information only on the road network, and the other uses information on both road network and hospital availability. Results of an application to an actual target area show the most vulnerable road links and differences of the two decision-making processes. A way to mitigate the loss due to damage to road links is examined. The paper also summarizes future developments in advanced information technology for emergency transportation systems.

Language: en