Citation

Livina V, Tuzov S, Havlin S, Bunde A. Physica A Stat. Mech. Appl. 2005; 348: 591-595.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2005, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

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PMID

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Abstract

We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time [tau]0. As a consequence, the conditional mean recurrence time between two events increases monotonically with [tau]0. For [tau]0 well below the average recurrence time is smaller than , while for , is greater than . Also, the mean residual time until the next earthquake does not depend only on the elapsed time, but also strongly on [tau]0. The larger [tau]0 is, the larger is the mean residual time. The above features should be taken into account in any earthquake prognosis.

Language: en