Citation

Şen M, Yiğiter MS, Özcan M. Case Stud. Transp. Policy 2023; 14: e101108.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, World Conference on Transport Research Society, Publisher Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.cstp.2023.101108

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Turkey is highly dependent on foreign oil supply and the number of automobiles and fuel consumption is increasing day by day. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, road transportation is second only to electric power generation. This study studies people's readiness to transition to electric vehicles in order to enhance their environmental and social quality of life, as well as the most effective strategy to increase the market share of electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030. We polled 466 automobile owners from 76 places throughout the country to determine their preferences. The intention to transition to EVs is the dependent variable in our study, with three ordinal responses ranging from "Certainly will switch" to "Definitely will not switch". The survey used an ordinal response logit (ORL) model with four policy scenarios. These scenarios are: abolishing the special consumption tax (SCT), providing government-backed loans, introducing an age limit for conventional vehicles, and increasing the number of EV stations. In the absence of any policy action by the government or automakers, we estimate that the market share of EVs in Turkey would be 0.1% and the potential customer base would be 1% by 2030. The abolition of special consumption tax (SCT) on EVs would boost the intention to absolutely switch and the likelihood of switching to EVs by 19.5% and 53.2%, respectively. This result shows that the tax on vehicles is the main factor influencing consumers to switch to EVs. The results of this paper suggests that other scenarios implemented by the government will also increase the market share of electric cars in Turkey.

Language: en

Keywords

Electric vehicle; Market shares; Ordinal logistic regression; Policy scenarios; Potential users