Citation

Zhao D, Chen C, Yi L. China Saf. Sci. J. 2021; 31(3): 171-177.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.03.024

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to explore time-varying characteristics of risk during disaster evolution and feasibility of time-series risk assessment, such an assessment model for disaster evolution network was firstly constructed by adopting disaster evolution theory and methods. The model was mainly composed of four sub-models, including disaster loss degree, disaster occurrence probability, disaster direct risk and comprehensive risk based on factors like chain effects of disaster, time-varying consequences and government intervention. Then, the model's feasibility was verified through numerical examples. Finally, its superiority was analyzed. The results show that the constructed model could not only evaluate direct and comprehensive risk for disaster evolution network and obtain their dynamic change trend, but also analyze high-risk occurrence time and duration of key nodes in the network. © 2021 China Safety Science Journal

Language: zh