Citation

Wang J, Zhang M, Huang X, Chen J. China Saf. Sci. J. 2019; 29(5): 171-177.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.028

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to explore the evolution trend of accident scenarios, the Netica was used to study the accidents characteristic parameters extracted from 983 road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals from 2013 to 2018 in China. And a BN model for road transportation accident analysis of hazardous materials was constructed. Fianlly, posterior probability was studied and the model was adopt to develop a prediction method of fault chain in the form of "initial accident - hazardous chemicals accident". The results show that the scenario analysis model can effectively assess the impact of various factors on the evolution of accident scenarios, and that the evolution of accident scenarios and the most likely scenario leading to specific consequences can be predicted by the model. © 2019 China Safety Science Journal

Language: zh