Citation

Wang Y, Chen G. China Saf. Sci. J. 2020; 30(5): 33-38.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.05.006

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to address the lack of flight operation risk prediction technology in China, ARMA method was used to build a univariate prediction model of flights' daily operation risk. Then, a multivariate prediction model was constructed by using VAR method. Finally, short-term prediction efficiency of two models was compared through stability test. The results show that the 3rdday prediction accuracy of ARMA-based single variable prediction model can be 80.76%, and its available forecast period is 1-3 days while that of VAR-based model can be as high as 92% for the 1st day and still keep at 80.64% for 7thday with an applicable prediction period of 1-7 days. It is proved that ARMA and VAR-based time series models can predict flight operation risk in a short term, but the VAR-based multivariate prediction model has higher accuracy, which meets airlines' actual needs better. © 2020 China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.

Language: zh