Citation

Zhang Y, Qiao L, Cen K. China Saf. Sci. J. 2021; 31(6): 37-43.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.06.005

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to study formation and evolution of group subjective probability deviation in the process of safe production, a CA model of individual subjective probability was constructed and simulation experiments were conducted by using Netlogo simulation platform. Then, simulated graphics were compared and analyzed, and hierarchical regression method was used to analyze experiment data. The results show that evolution process of subjective probability of a group is divided into three periods, namely sudden change, fluctuation, and stability. Individual death will lead to a systematic underestimation of subjective probability, and aggravate its difference within the group. Reduction of objective accident probability will also increase difference in subjective probability. However, an increase in the number of group members helps to reduce such deviation and difference, and promotes a more objective and unified estimation of subjective probability of a group. © 2021 China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.

Language: zh