Citation

Zhang J, Chen X, Zhang W, Wu S. China Saf. Sci. J. 2022; 32(1): 85-91.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.01.012

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to forewarn pressure fluctuation risks of pulverized coal gasification in fluidized beds caused by bubble movement, a method to predict extreme value and return level of pressure fluctuation was proposed. Firstly, pressure fluctuation data of parent sample were segmented reasonably by autocorrelation analysis method. and interval extreme value method was employed to calculate extreme value data for sub-samples. Secondly, GEV distribution model and Gumbel distribution model were established through GEV distribution method, and an optimal model was selected by model diagnosis. Then, extreme distribution parameters of parent sample were obtained from parametric relationship between it and sub-samples, and expected value of extreme pressure fluctuation was acquired based on extreme value distribution parameters of parent sample, from which, return level of pressure fluctuation was also obtained by Bayesian inference. The results show that the error rate of extreme value obtained by utilizing GEV distribution is controlled within ±10%, with its average error rate within - I. 7%-3.1%. It can be believed with 95% confidence thai return level of pressure fluctuation will be maintained within confidence interval. © 2022, Editorial Department of China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.

Language: zh