Citation

Liu J, Yu Y, Zhang Z, Yu J, Wang W, Fu Y. China Saf. Sci. J. 2022; 32(5): 147-154.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.05.0699

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to explore key failure modes of non-bonded flexible risers, a risk assessment method combining quantitative assessment and probability reasoning was proposed. Firstly, risk matrix method was improved based on two-dimensional cloud model. Secondly, fault tree was transformed into BN, bottom event was quantitatively evaluated and its occurrence probability was calculated. Then, failure probability of top event was solved and fault source was investigated through BN bidirectional reasoning. Finally, preventive measures were proposed for key failure modes, and the assessment method was verified with an example. The results show that the failure probability of non-bonded flexible risers is 1. 099 × 10-2. Corrosion, erosion and ship movement are the three failure modes with higher risk levels, and should be paid attention to during maintenance. © PHYSOR 2022 China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.

Language: zh