Citation

Yang Y, Song X, Wang J. China Saf. Sci. J. 2020; 30(8): 109-115.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.08.016

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to accurately identify human error risks of ATCO and quantitatively predict their probability in different cognitive domains, error types of ATCO were defined in accordance with cognitive functional framework of TRACEr, and causing factors for psychological error mechanism were analyzed before a Bayesian network of unsafe incidents in Air Traffic Management (ATM) was established with such factors as root nodes. Then, conditional probabilities of network nodes were calculated by introducing weighted distance, and human error data of unsafe incidents in China during last decade were analyzed to investigate risk factors. The results show that ATCO's errors could be generated in any cognitive domain, which leads to a probability of 0. 040 7 of unsafe incidents. Among all factors, alertness failure, insufficient learning, neglecting danger, miscommunication and unclear convey of information are major ones, which results in a higher probability of judgement error and information transmission error. © 2020 China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.

Language: zh