Citation

Hou Z, Chen Z. China Saf. Sci. J. 2020; 30(9): 59-65.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn.1003-3033.2020.09.009

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to explore influence law of domino effect on accident probability in oil tank farm of ports, qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation methods were utilized to analyze influence range of domino effect and accident probability. Then, based on effect analysis, occurrence and development mode as well as calculation steps of synthetic probability of domino effect between oil tanks were described. Finally, storage tank identification method and Monte Carto calculation of synthetic probability were proposed by adopting extended probability model. The results shows that domino effect exerts a significant impact on accident probability of oil storage tanks, and probability of three times accidents of the greatest impact tank is 7. 3 times that of initial accident. © 2020 China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.

Language: zh