Citation

Yu Q, Huang Y, Sha C. China Saf. Sci. J. 2022; 32(8): 168-175.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.08.0852

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to accurately predict impact probability of typhoon characteristic parameters on each disaster in the disaster chain, a probability calculation model of the chain was constructed by using unbalanced sample processing algorithm and accident tree theory. Then, impact between different disasters was weighted, and impact probability between them was obtained by utilizing relationship matrix. Finally, occurrence probability of specific disasters was derived based on calculation model. The results show that changes in typhoon characteristic parameters will lead to changes in calculated probability of primary and secondary disasters in the chain. The higher the wind scale of typhoon is, the greater impact on primary disaster probability will be than on that of secondary ones. Moreover, changes of typhoon track mainly affect types of disasters, and according calculation results, the more typhoon track faces inland area, the more kinds of disasters will appear. The increase in number of typhoons will significantly increase the model's iteration steps to calculate disaster probability. © PHYSOR 2022 China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.

Language: zh