Citation

Wang W, Dong C, Liu L, Li W, Mi H, Shen K. China Saf. Sci. J. 2019; 29(4): 89-95.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.04.015

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Failure probability analysis model of shale gas wellhead devices, a combination of FTA and BN, was established in order to study the failure. Firstly, a fault tree was developed based on the root cause analysis of wellhead device failure. Secondly, the failure tree was mapped into a BN. Secondly, BN model was modified in terms of polymorphism and uncertainty. Finally, the failure probability of wellhead devices was predicted and the key failure-caused factors were identified by using the two-way reasoning of BN. The results show that the failure probability of wellhead device is 1. 31×10-2and the key factors that lead to the failure are incorrect operation, aging of seal packing and bolt loosening, and the failure probability can be increased by 3×10-3after BN model is modified. © 2019 China Safety Science Journal

Language: zh