Citation

Pan S, Dou Z, Li Y, Shi L. China Saf. Sci. J. 2019; 29(6): 83-89.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.06.014

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to quantify the accident risk caused by domino effect of fire accidents in the crude oil storage tank area, a graph-based domino effect evaluation algorithm was developed which considers both the probabilities of primary fire and its probability of subsequent events. Firstly, the accident tree method was used to calculate the expected number of primary fire accidents in the tank. Then the graph model was constructed with the storage tanks in which primary fire occurs as nodes and the probable fire expansion directions as edges. Afterwards, the Bayesian networks presenting the fire expansion of each node were build based on the abovementioned graph model. Finally, the Bayesian network was used to calculate the total expectation of each node's accidents under the domino effect, and the proposed algorithm was applied to evaluate the domino effect in a crude oil tank farm. The results show that compared with the expected value of accidents considering only a single storage tank, the total expected value of accidents in some storage tanks is increasing significantly after considering the domino effect of accidents in surrounding storage tanks, and that the domino effect should not be ignored in accident risk assessment. © 2019 China Safety Science Journal

Language: zh