Citation

Song Y, Ma L, Yang L, Jiang X. China Saf. Sci. J. 2019; 29(6): 1-6.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.06.001

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to identify the risk factors and estimate the probability of firms' inoperation caused by extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, 183 news reports of business interruption due to flood disaster since 2008 were analyzed, and a BN for business interruption based on the fault tree method was constructed. FST was adopted to reduce the uncertainty of database and to optimize fuzzy probability reasoning process. The sensitivity analysis was utilized to identify the key factors of business interruption. The results show that the business interruption risk of enterprises in China is 35.5% under the extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, and that the two main critical risk factors are water supply interruption and power supply interruption. © 2021 China Safety Science Journal

Language: zh