Citation

Li X, Fu Y, Liu Y, Han Z, Zhang R. China Saf. Sci. J. 2023; 33(9): 204-213.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.09.1469

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to effectively prevent marine ship collisions, a Copula⁃BN⁃based dynamic risk assessment method for marine ship collisions was proposed. Gaussian Copula method was used to identify the edge distribution of each node, so that the complex relationships between risk factor and collision risk was more accurate and the Bayesian model inference results were more reasonable. Firstly, the data collected on ship collisions were combined with expert knowledge to identify and analyze the specific risk factors that led to ship collisions from the perspective of the human⁃ship⁃loop system. Gaussian Copula method was used to identify the edge distribution of each node and determine the optimal marginal distribution function of each node. Then BN structure was determined through expert experience and data structure analysis, thus completing the establishment of the Copula⁃BN model. Based on the correlation analysis, forward probability prediction analysis and backward fault diagnosis analysis, the key risk factors leading to the occurrence of ship collision were introduced based on the dependency between each risk factor and the target factor, and the whole risk system was dynamically analyzed through the state update of the nodes. The study shows that this method can identify the key risk factors leading to ship collision accidents and realize the dynamic assessment of ship collision risk. © 2023 China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.

Language: zh