Citation

Zhao J, Xie L, Yang Y, Hu X, Ou C, Zeng R. China Saf. Sci. J. 2022; 32(8): 37-44.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.08.2009

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

To ensure the navigation safety of inland waterway vessels, the maritime accident reports of the Yangtze River in recent 5 years were collected manually, and the main data representing the frequency of risk factors were extracted. Combined with the accident investigation report, the risk factors are analyzed, and the evaluation index system of ship navigation risk is determined. The correlation modeling between risk factors was constructed by the ISM, and the hierarchical relationship between factors was obtained to determine the correlation between risk factors. The influence of various factors on maritime safety was studied by data-driven BN, and the model was verified by sensitivity analysis and previous accident records. The results show that the key risk factors involved in accident types include water location, ship type, maneuvering execution and channel conditions. The method proposed in this paper can identify the main risk factors of different accident types, and the average prediction accuracy of the risk model is 82. 87%. © 2022 China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.

Language: zh