Citation

Meng L, Cheng W. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2023; 95: e103842.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103842

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Given the dynamic and cascading nature of urban emergencies, decision-makers are often faced with challenging emergency decisions. In this study, a dynamic emergency decision-support model considering the cascading effect is proposed. First of all, this paper divides the whole process of urban emergency development into several time slices, and each time slice describes a cascading process. Then, it uses the population distribution heat map to obtain the distribution of affected people in each scenario area during the cascading process to assess severity. At the same time, using the network index, a method of analysing the risk of each scenario from the perspective of network structure is proposed to determine the degree of risk. Finally, combine these two indicators to determine the scenarios that need to be dealt with urgently at this stage. In addition, this study takes the Tianjin Port's hazardous cargo explosion accident as an example to illustrate the application of the proposed method. The results show that this method can identify the key emergency areas and targets in each time slice.

Language: en

Keywords

Emergency decision-making; Mobile phone location data; Scenario cascade network; Scenario evolution; Urban emergencies