Citation

Zhao T, Wang J, Sun L. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2023; 93: e103777.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103777

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In this paper, a modelling framework that enables the assessment on the fatality risk of earthquake-impacted urban systems, by tracking the spatiotemporal evolution of the mass post-shock transfer following catastrophic earthquakes, has been proposed. A crowd dynamic-based model has been developed and incorporated into the framework, to examine the impact of the behaviour pattern of each injured inhabitant in need of hospitalization, on the transfer behaviour on the system-level. To examine its applicability, such a framework was applied to a real-world hospital system (HS) in Tangshan City, located in one of the most earthquake-prone zones of China. The corresponding outcome reveals that a prolonged lack of access to the emergency healthcare could emerge, when it comes to seismic scenarios with high magnitude. Meanwhile, it is also found that the uninterrupted information sharing can help to maximize the access of the local HS to the injured inhabitants in a much faster way, and ultimately, to reduce the fatality risk thereof, under seismic contingencies.

Language: en

Keywords

Agent; Crowd dynamic; Earthquake hazard; Emergency transfer; Hospital system; Road network