Citation

Chaudhuri S, Juan P, Mateu J. Journal of Applied Statistics 2023; 50(16): 3229-3250.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, Sheffield City Polytechnic)

DOI

10.1080/02664763.2022.2104822

PMID

37969892

PMCID

PMC10637209

Abstract

Traffic deaths and injuries are one of the major global public health concerns. The present study considers accident records in an urban environment to explore and analyze spatial and temporal in the incidence of road traffic accidents. We propose a spatio-temporal model to provide predictions of the number of traffic collisions on any given road segment, to further generate a risk map of the entire road network. A Bayesian methodology using Integrated nested Laplace approximations with stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) has been applied in the modeling process. As a novelty, we have introduced SPDE network triangulation to estimate the spatial autocorrelation restricted to the linear network. The resulting risk maps provide information to identify safe routes between source and destination points, and can be useful for accident prevention and multi-disciplinary road safety measures.

Language: en

Keywords

INLA; network triangulation; Poisson hurdle model; SPDE; traffic risk mapping