Citation

Delavary M, Kalantari AH, Mohammadzadeh Moghaddam A, Fakoor V, Lavallière M, Wilhelm Siebert F. Int. J. Inj. Control Safe. Promot. 2023; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/17457300.2023.2272239

PMID

37861126

Abstract

Road traffic mortalities (RTMs) and injuries are among the leading causes of human fatalities worldwide, particularly in low-and middle-income countries like Iran. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we investigated three interventional points (two government-mandated fuel price increases and increased traffic ticket fines) for their potential relation to RTMs. Our findings showed that while the overall trend of RTMs was decreasing during the study period, multiple individual provinces showed smaller reductions in RTMs. We also found that both waves of government-mandated fuel price increases coincided with decreases in RTMs. However, the second wave coincided with RTM decreases in a smaller number of provinces than the first wave suggesting that the same type of intervention may not be as effective when repeated. Also, increased traffic ticket fines were only effective in a small number of provinces. Potential reasons and solutions for the findings are discussed in light of Iran's Road Safety Strategic Plan.

Language: en

Keywords

change point detection; interrupted time series analysis; road safety policy; Road traffic fatalities; SARIMA