Citation

Du C, Ouyang M, Zhang H, Wang B, Wang N. Risk Anal. 2023; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/risa.14236

PMID

37853542

Abstract

Recent events, including COVID-19, extreme floods, and explosion accidents, commonly induced localized closures and disruptions of urban road networks (URNs), resulting in significant impacts on human mobility and socio-economic activities. Existing studies on URN resilience to those events mainly took few cases for empirical studies, limiting our understanding on the URN resilience patterns across different cities. By conducting a large-scale nationwide resilience analysis of URNs in 363 cities in mainland China, this study attempts to uncover the resilience patterns of URNs against the worst-case single (SLDs) and multiple localized disruptions (MLDs).

RESULTS show that the distance from the worst-case SLD to the city center would be less than 5 km in 62.3% cities, as opposed to more than 15 km in 14.3% cities. Moreover, the average road network resilience of cities in western China could be 7% and 13% smaller than that of the eastern cities under the worst-case SLDs and MLDs, respectively. This inequality in the worst-case resilience is partly attributable to variations in urban socio-economic, infrastructure-related, and topographic factors. These findings could inspire nationwide pre-disaster mitigation strategies to cope with localized disruptions and help transfer insights for mitigation strategies against disruptive events across cities.

Language: en

Keywords

localized disruption; resilience pattern; urban road network; worst-case scenario