Citation

Gamage TD, Sonnadara U, Jayasinghe S, Basnayake S. J. Natl. Sci. Found. Sri Lanka 2022; 50(3): 675-684.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka)

DOI

10.4038/jnsfsr.v50i3.10761

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The cyclone 'Burevi' was recorded in the North Indian Ocean in the month of December 2020. In this study a numerical weather forecasting model WRF-ARW was used to forecast the track, intensity, and landfall location and time of the cyclone. The forecasting was performed as 16 consecutive model runs. Each forecast was initiated with different model initializations with a 12 hour time interval. For such initializations, the lateral boundary condition was set by the global forecast system data with a horizontal resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° at 3 hour time intervals. The forecasts were conducted up to 120 hours and evaluated using the data obtained from an international best track archive. The forecasted track was evaluated using root mean square error, direct positional error, along-track error and cross-track error. The intensity of the cyclone was evaluated by comparing the minimum sea level pressure and maximum forecasted 10-m wind speed obtained from the positions of the forecasted cyclone track. The WRF-ARW model was successful in forecasting the track and the intensity of the cyclone up to a lead time of 48 hours having a mean direct positional error of less than 106 km. This cyclone recorded three landfalls in Sri Lanka. The accuracy of the forecasted first landfall position and time were within the acceptable range, but the second and third require further investigation

Language: en