Citation

Atrill J, Sushama L, Teufel B. Saf. Extrem. Environ. 2021; 3(2): 103-124.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1007/s42797-021-00036-y

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Climate change presents many challenges to the aviation industry, including a potential increase in clear-air turbulence (CAT) due to rising temperatures and changing wind patterns, which can impact in-flight safety. This study analyzes future changes to CAT frequency and severity over a pan-Arctic domain, which has recently seen a surge in air traffic, using four turbulence indices. Future characterization of CAT in this region and its implications for polar air traffic are lacking. Two five-member ensembles of transient regional climate model (RCM) simulations, corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, spanning the 1980-2099 period are considered in this study. An ERA Interim-driven RCM-simulation is used to validate CAT-related variables and turbulence indices, which confirms the model ability in capturing environmental conditions leading to CAT. Detailed analysis of five turbulence severity categories suggests that projected increases for the severe category are more than double those for the light category in most cases. Moderate-or-greater (MOG) CAT frequency over the Arctic circle is projected to decrease by up to 50% in the mid-century for RCP4.5, however, a reversal is projected by the late century, with increases of between 25% and 50%. Furthermore, MOG CAT frequency shows the largest projected increase during the fall, with changes more than double those in spring and summer. This study provides useful insights into future CAT characteristics for the pan-Arctic region and highlights the need for future turbulence forecasting research and improved in-flight and aircraft safety measures in this remote and extremely cold environment.

Language: en

Keywords

Arctic; Clear air turbulence; Climate change; Polar aviation safety; Regional climate model