|
Abstract
|
We estimate the first econometric model of the national civil-ian firearms market in the United States (1946-2016), whereper capita firearms-related harm is exceptionally high. Solv-ing simultaneous equation models instrumented by naturaldisasters and steel prices, and employing unique firearmsprices and quantities data, we find this market operates nor-mally, except that firearms stocks may generate some newmarket demand in a positive feedback loop. Save for theFederal Assault Weapons Ban (1994-2004), federal firearmslegislation does not influence firearms sales. We find that vio-lent crime, including homicide and mass shootings, boostsdomestic sales.
Karp (2018) estimates that the United States, with 1.2 firearms per capita, has a higher rate of firearmsownership than any other country in the world--more than double the rate of war-torn Yemen (0.53)and thrice that of postwar Serbia and Montenegro (both at 0.39). Civilian firearms stocks per se neednot be a problem, but the United States also suffers from the highest rates of firearms-related harm inthe high-income world. For example, in 2017, the US rate of firearms homicide of 4.5 per 100,000people was over 13 times that of its equally well-off1northern neighbor, Canada (National Center forHealth Statistics2018). Informed by the Second Amendment to the US Constitution, which guaranteesits citizens the right to keep and bear arms, the United States also has some of the least restrictivefirearms laws globally, resulting in the world's largest civilian firearms market. In 2020, there wereapproximately 52,700 federally licensed firearms dealer outlets in the United States and a total ofabout 13.5 million firearms supplied to the domestic market in 2019, about half of which were imports(DOJ/ATF2021). With the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, firearms supply exploded to well over 15million units that year according to the US International Trade Commission (USITC) and Bureau ofAlcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) data... 45 pages
Language: en |