Citation

Hulkkonen M, Kaaronen RO, Kokkola H, Mielonen T, Clusius P, Xavier C, Hellén H, Niemi JV, Malila J. Ambio 2023; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Publisher Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1007/s13280-022-01827-8

PMID

36735103

Abstract

Interactions in urban environment were investigated using a multidisciplinary model combination, with focus on traffic, emissions and atmospheric particles. An agent-based model was applied to simulate the evolution of unsustainable human behavior (usage of combustion-based personal vehicles) as a function of pro-environmental affordances (opportunities for sustainable choices). Scenarios regarding changes in multi-pollutant emissions were derived, and the non-linear implications to atmospheric particles were simulated with a box model. Based on the results for a Nordic city, increasing pro-environmental affordances by 10%, 50% or 100% leads to emission reductions of 15%, 30% and 40% within 2 years. To reduce ambient particle mass, emissions from traffic should decrease by > 15%, while the lung deposited surface area decreases in all scenarios ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], correspondingly). The presented case is representative of one season, but the approach is generic and applicable to simulating a full year, given meteorological and pollution data that reflects seasonal variation. This work emphasizes the necessity to consider feedback mechanisms and non-linearities in both human behavior and atmospheric processes, when predicting the outcomes of changes in an urban system.

Language: en

Keywords

Human behavior; Agent-based model; Atmospheric processes; Emissions; Particulate pollution; Urban mobility