Citation

Kagawa R, Charbonneau AK, McCort C, McCourt A, Vernick J, Webster D, Wintemute G. Am. J. Epidemiol. 2023; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, Oxford University Press)

DOI

10.1093/aje/kwac222

PMID

36610733

Abstract

Studies of the effectiveness of comprehensive background check (CBC) policies in multiple states have yielded null results. These prior studies focused on CBC laws adopted in the 1990s, when record keeping was far less complete. We estimate the effect of the implementation of CBC policies on state-level firearm homicide and suicide rates in states implementing CBC policies from 2013-2015 (Colorado, Delaware, Oregon, Washington). We compare age-adjusted firearm homicide and suicide rates measured annually from 15 years prior to policy implementation until 2019 in each treated state to rates in control groups constructed using the synthetic control group method. Differences in firearm homicide rates for Colorado, Oregon, and Washington were all small (0.09 to 0.18 per 100,000) and not well distinguished from natural variation. Oregon had on average 0.80 per 100,000 fewer firearm suicides per year than did synthetic Oregon. However, these results were inconsistent across modeling approaches. Our models produced poor fit for Delaware. Coupled with previous null results from Indiana, California, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee, the current results suggest extending background check requirements to private transfers alone and implementing as is currently done is not sufficient to achieve significant state-level reductions in firearm fatalities.

Language: en

Keywords

comprehensive background checks; firearm policy; Firearm violence