Citation

Wang S, Shao C, Zhang J, Zheng Y, Meng M. Urban Inform. 2022; 1(1): e16.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1007/s44212-022-00015-z

PMID

36471871

PMCID

PMC9713748

Abstract

Traffic flow prediction plays an important role in intelligent transportation systems. To accurately capture the complex non-linear temporal characteristics of traffic flow, this paper adopts a Bi-directional Gated Recurrent Unit (Bi-GRU) model in traffic flow prediction. Compared to Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), which can memorize information from the previous sequence, this model can memorize the traffic flow information in both previous and subsequent sequence. To demonstrate the model's performance, a set of real case data at 1-hour intervals from 5 working days was used, wherein the dataset was separated into training and validation. To improve data quality, an augmented dickey-fuller unit root test and differential processing were performed before model training. Four benchmark models were used, including the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), and GRU. The prediction results show the superior performance of Bi-GRU. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the Bi-GRU model are 30.38, 9.88%, and 23.35, respectively. The prediction accuracy of LSTM, Bi-LSTM, GRU, and Bi-GRU, which belong to deep learning methods, is significantly higher than that of the traditional ARIMA model. The MAPE difference of Bi-GRU and GRU is 0.48% which is a small prediction error value. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the peak period is higher than that of the low peak. The Bi-GRU model has a certain lag on traffic flow prediction.

Language: en

Keywords

Bi-GRU; Deep learning method; Short-term traffic flow prediction; Urban expressway