Citation

Sugimoto T, Takayama Y, Takagi A. Proc. Conf. Japan Soc. Traffic Eng. 2022; 42: 367-374.

Vernacular Title

交通基盤整備の長期的影響評価のための都市経済分析: 浸水リスク増大による経済活動の空間分布変化

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, Japan Society of Traffic Engineers)

DOI

10.14954/jsteproceeding.42.0_367

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop an urban economic analysis method that can measure changes in the spatial distribution of economic activities (i.e., population distribution, company distribution) due to an increase in flood risk, contributing to the long-term impact assessment of transportation infrastructure development. For this purpose, we constructed a model that can take into account the risk of inundation based on the model of previous research1) that considers the economy of agglomeration. Then, it was shown that there exists a potential function in the model that enables large-scale numerical calculations that occur in analyzes targeting real space. In addition, we presented a systematic parameter setting method that enables analysis in real space. In addition, a counterfactual experiment was conducted on the increased risk of inundation in the Kanazawa metropolitan employment area. Then, it was confirmed that the results reflected the characteristics of the model, and measures to reduce flood damage were considered based on the population changes in the flooded areas.

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本研究では，交通基盤整備の長期的影響評価に資する，浸水リスク増大による経済活動の空間分布（i.e., 人口分布，企業分布）変化を計測可能な都市経済分析手法の開発を目的とする．そのために，集積の経済を考慮した先行研究1)のモデルを基盤に，浸水リスクを考慮できるモデルを構築した．そして，実空間を対象とした分析で生じる大規模な数値計算を可能とするポテンシャル関数がモデルに存在することを示した．加えて，実空間での分析を可能とする系統的なパラメータ設定方法を提示した．さらに，金沢都市雇用圏を対象に，浸水リスク増大に関する反実仮想実験を実施した．そして，その結果がモデルの特徴を反映していることを確認し，整理した浸水区域人口変化から，浸水被害軽減策を考察した．

Language: ja

Keywords

ポテンシャル関数; 浸水リスク; 都市経済分析; 集積の経済