Citation

Vasisht S, Choudhury S, Nazir N, Zoepf S, Dowling CP. Transport findings 2022; 2022.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, The University of Sydney, Faculty of Engineering or the authors, Publisher Findings Press)

DOI

10.32866/001c.38134

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

We apply Bayesian Linear Regression to estimate the response rate of drivers to variable message signs at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, or SEA. Our approach uses vehicle speed and flow data measured at the entrances of the arrival and departure-ways of the airport terminal, and sign message data. Depending on the time of day, we estimate that between 5.5 and 9.1% of drivers divert from departures to arrivals when the sign reads "departures full, use arrivals", and conversely, between 1.9 and 4.2% of drivers divert from arrivals to departures. Though we lack counterfactual data (i.e., what would have happened had the diversionary treatment not been active), adopting a causal model that encodes time dependency with prior distributions rate can yield a measurable effect.

Language: en