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Abstract
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OBJECTIVE To study the occurrence and severity of accidents at roundabouts, and to provide a basis for improving the safety of roundabouts and reducing accident damage.
METHODS Using the accident data of multiple roundabouts in the United States from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration from 2016 to 2019, fixed-parameter and random-parameter ordinal logistic regression analysis was performed by NLOGIT 5 software.
RESULTS The total number of accidents at roundabouts reached 355, of which 20 accidents caused serious injuries, 108 accidents caused minor injuries, and 227 accidents caused no obvious injuries, accounting for 5.64% and 30.42% respectively. , 63.94%. Among the factors that have a significant impact on the severity of the roundabout accident, the protective factors include rear-end collision ( β = -1.68, t = -4.61, P < 0.01), side collision in the same direction ( β = -2.91, t =-6.22, P < 0.01), cloudy weather ( β = -0.88, t = -1.76, P < 0.05), type of injury ( β = -0.66, t = -2.39, P < 0.1), correlation with speed ( β = -1.22, s= 1.84, t = -2.18, P < 0.01) and angular collision ( β = -2.26, s = 1.98, t = -5.58, P < 0.01), and the factors that aggravated the risk were located in the intersection area ( β = 1.05, t = 1.86, P < 0.1), alcohol consumption ( β = 2.43, s = 2.47, t = 4.00, P < 0.1), and age of accident participants ( β = 0.03, t = 4.25, P < 0.01), speed-related, Alcohol consumption and angle collision 3 variables have random parameters.
CONCLUSION The severity of accident injuries at roundabouts is affected by many factors such as the accident itself, participants, and environmental conditions. It is necessary to focus on being located in the intersection area, drinking alcohol, and elderly drivers to formulate measures to reduce accident injuries at roundabouts.
https://academic.hep.com.cn/im/CN/Y2022/V11/I2/20
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目的 研究环形交叉口的事故发生情况及严重程度的影响因素，为提高环形交叉口安全、减少事故损伤提供依据。方法 采用来自美国国家公路交通安全管理局的2016--2019年期间美国多个环形交叉口的事故数据，通过NLOGIT 5软件进行固定参数和随机参数有序logistic回归分析。结果 环形交叉口事故总数达到355起，其中，造成严重伤害的事故有20起，造成轻伤的事故108起，没有造成人员明显伤害的事故数为227起，占比分别为5.64%、30.42%、63.94%。对环形交叉口事故严重程度具有显著影响的因素中，起到保护作用的因素有追尾碰撞 （β＝-1.68，t＝-4.61，P＜0.01）、同方向侧碰 （β＝-2.91，t＝-6.22，P＜0.01）、多云天气（β＝-0.88，t＝-1.76，P＜0.05）、受伤者类型（β＝-0.66，t＝-2.39，P＜0.1）、与速度相关（β＝ -1.22，s＝1.84，t＝-2.18，P＜0.01）和角度碰撞（β＝-2.26，s＝1.98，t＝-5.58，P＜0.01），存在加重危险作用的因素有位于交汇区（β＝1.05，t＝1.86，P＜0.1）、饮酒（β＝2.43，s＝2.47，t＝4.00，P＜0.1）以及事故参与者的年龄（β＝0.03，t＝4.25，P＜0.01），速度相关、饮酒和角度碰撞3个变量具有随机参数。结论 环形交叉口处的事故伤害严重程度受到事故本身、参与人员、环境条件等多方面因素影响，要重点从位于交汇区、饮酒和高龄驾驶员入手，来制定降低环形交叉口事故伤害的措施。
Language: cn |