Citation

Kirchmeier-Young MC, Gillett NP, Zwiers FW, Cannon AJ, Anslow FS. Earths Future 2019; 7(1): 2-10.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1029/2018EF001050

PMID

35860503

PMCID

PMC9285568

Abstract

A record 1.2 million ha burned in British Columbia, Canada's extreme wildfire season of 2017. Key factors in this unprecedented event were the extreme warm and dry conditions that prevailed at the time, which are also reflected in extreme fire weather and behavior metrics. Using an event attribution method and a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations, we show that the risk factors affecting the event, and the area burned itself, were made substantially greater by anthropogenic climate change. We show over 95% of the probability for the observed maximum temperature anomalies is due to anthropogenic factors, that the event's high fire weather/behavior metrics were made 2-4 times more likely, and that anthropogenic climate change increased the area burned by a factor of 7-11. This profound influence of climate change on forest fire extremes in British Columbia, which is likely reflected in other regions and expected to intensify in the future, will require increasing attention in forest management, public health, and infrastructure.

Language: en

Keywords

wildfire; climate change; event attribution